Win probability
33%Lens
25%Draw
42%Como
Champions League · Europe
Markets
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Under 2.5 goals38%
Both teams score (GG)69%
Double chance X267%
Key factors
- ▼Key player out · ComoCOM
Como striker Moise Kean is ruled out for about five weeks with a tibia problem, per the club update reported by Sky Sport Italia. Applied conservatively at half the key-player maximum.
- ▼Chalobah outCOM
Fabregas had hoped to have Chalobah back, but the leg problem rules him out against Inter.
- ▲Liberali is available again after scoring in the Champions League.COM
Liberali is available again after scoring in the Champions League.
- ▼After the 9-1 win at Lens, Fabregas told his players to stay grounded for Sunday and said his focus is on getting back the many absentees, especially in attack.COM
After the 9-1 win at Lens, Fabregas told his players to stay grounded for Sunday and said his focus is on getting back the many absentees, especially in attack.
- ▼Édouard outLEN
Édouard listed as out (adductor) by UEFA ahead of the 4 Nov Champions League match.
- ▼Liberali outCOM
Liberali listed as unavailable for Serie A matchday 9 by TMW (28 Oct); no reason given.
- ▼Chalobah doubtfulCOM
Chalobah listed as doubtful (muscular) by UEFA ahead of the 4 Nov Champions League match.
Preview
Como arrive at Bollaert in good shape. A 1-0 home win over Venezia on Sunday, settled by a Da Cunha penalty, was their fourth straight victory and lifted them to fourth in Serie A. They sit on six points from three Champions League games. Lens are on three points and have not scored in their only home game in the competition so far. They also lost the Derby du Nord 1-0 at Lille on Friday to a late Olivier Giroud goal. Both sides have forwards missing. Como are without Moise Kean, who is out for around five weeks with a tibia problem, and Assane Diao. Lens are without Odsonne Edouard after a minor operation, plus Ismaelo Ganiou and Abdallah Sima. The market makes Como slight favourites, and we keep the result close to that, trimming Como a little for Kean. The goals line is where the numbers lean. Our model's expected goals point to an open game, and the market rates over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Como are in better form, but Lens at home make the result tight. Our surest angle is goals: we rate over 2.5 at 62%.
FAQ
Who is missing for Lens vs Como?
Lens are without Odsonne Edouard, Ismaelo Ganiou and Abdallah Sima. Como are without Moise Kean and Assane Diao, and Trevoh Chalobah is a doubt.
What is the pick for Lens vs Como?
Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.55. We rate it at 62%.
Who is favourite, Lens or Como?
Como. We rate a Como win at 42%, a Lens win at 33% and a draw at 25%.
What is the best bet for Lens vs Como?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.55, rated 62% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 62% for this match.
When does Lens vs Como kick off?
Wed 04 Nov, 20:00 UTC.