Champions League · EuropeWed 21 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Inter

WWLL

Full time1–0

Shakhtar Donetsk

LLWD

Market favouriteOver 3.5 goals

Odds1.81How over/under goals works →

Win probability

76%Inter

15%Draw

9%Shakhtar Donetsk

Markets

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Under 2.5 goals30%

Both teams score (GG)77%

Double chance 1X91%

Key factors

▼
Key player out · Inter
Inter captain Lautaro Martínez has a left thigh flexor strain and is out until after the November international break (fresh news, counted near full weight).
INT
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Key attacker out · Inter
Inter's captain and striker Lautaro Martínez is out with a left thigh flexor strain, lowering Inter's attacking output.
INT
▲
Barring surprises, Jones has recovered from an adductor complaint and will be on the bench against Como.
Barring surprises, Jones has recovered from an adductor complaint and will be on the bench against Como.
INT
▲
Barring surprises, Stones has recovered from a flexor complaint and will be on the bench against Como.
Barring surprises, Stones has recovered from a flexor complaint and will be on the bench against Como.
INT
▼
Jones out
Jones listed as unavailable for Serie A matchday 9 by TMW (28 Oct); no reason given.
INT
▼
Stones out
Stones listed as unavailable for Serie A matchday 9 by TMW (28 Oct); no reason given.
INT
▼
Bonny was out with flu for the Milan derby, per ESPN column.
Bonny was out with flu for the Milan derby, per ESPN column.
INT
▼
Pio Esposito was out with flu for the Milan derby, per ESPN column.
Pio Esposito was out with flu for the Milan derby, per ESPN column.
INT

Preview

Inter are under pressure in Europe: they have lost both Champions League games so far, to Real Madrid and then 4-3 at home to Club Brugge. They bounced back with a 3-1 win at Bologna on Saturday, with goals from Marcus Thuram, Carlos Augusto and Ange-Yoan Bonny. The big absence is captain Lautaro Martínez, who has a left thigh strain and is not expected back until after the November international break. Shakhtar arrive with four points from two games, including a 3-1 win over AEK Athens last week, and they won 2-1 against Kolos at the weekend. The market makes Inter clear favourites at 79%, which we trim to 76% without Lautaro. That win is priced at only 1.24, below our 1.30 floor. Goals are the other angle, but over 2.5 at 1.30 no longer offers a fair price once Lautaro's absence is counted, and four of the last five meetings stayed under 2.5 goals. We publish the preview without a main pick.

Our verdict

Inter should win, but the price is too short and the goals line no longer offers fair value without Lautaro. No main pick here.

Head to head

2021-11-24Inter 2–0 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
2021-09-28Shakhtar Donetsk 0–0 InterUEFA Champions League
2020-12-09Inter 0–0 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
2020-10-27Shakhtar Donetsk 0–0 InterUEFA Champions League
2020-08-17Inter 5–0 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Europa League

FAQ

Is Lautaro Martínez playing?

No. He has a left thigh strain and is expected back only after the November international break.

How have Inter done in this Champions League?

They have lost both games so far, including a 4-3 home defeat to Club Brugge.

Why no pick?

The Inter win is priced at 1.24, below our 1.30 minimum, and the goals markets do not offer a fair price.

What is the best bet for Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

The market favourite is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.81, rated 56% by the market. No bet is ever sure.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

We put the chance of three or more goals at 70% for this match.

When does Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?

Wed 21 Oct, 19:00 UTC.