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Champions League · Europe
Full time4–1
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Napoli

LWLL
Sure pickOver 2.5 goals
Odds1.81How over/under goals works →

Win probability

52%FC Porto
27%Draw
21%Napoli

Markets

Over 2.5 goals57%
Under 2.5 goals43%
Both teams score (GG)60%
Double chance 1X79%

Key factors

  • ▼
    Key player out · Napoli

    Napoli captain Giovanni Di Lorenzo is listed by UEFA as unavailable for Porto, adding to a long injury list in Allegri's squad.

    NAP
  • ●
    Key defender out · Napoli

    Napoli's defence is depleted: UEFA lists Di Lorenzo, Olivera and Badiashile among the unavailable players.

    NAP
  • ●
    Key attacker out · Napoli

    Striker Rasmus Hojlund is listed by UEFA as doubtful through illness after missing the Juventus game; counted at half weight.

    NAP
  • ▲
    Hojlund is back up front for the Lazio game.

    Hojlund is back up front for the Lazio game.

    NAP
  • ▼
    Olivera doubtful

    Olivera has a muscle complaint; Sky's preview has him sidelined for Lazio, while its injury list calls him doubtful.

    NAP
  • ▼
    Marianucci suspended

    Marianucci serves a one-match ban and misses Lazio.

    NAP
  • ▼
    Di Lorenzo doubtful

    The captain's adductor problem from the Juventus game leaves him doubtful for the Lazio match on Sunday.

    NAP
  • ▼
    Before the Porto trip Allegri said only 13 players were training, too few even for a rondo, but refused to use absences as an excuse and said he would see who was fit.

    Before the Porto trip Allegri said only 13 players were training, too few even for a rondo, but refused to use absences as an excuse and said he would see who was fit.

    NAP

Preview

Porto host Napoli at the Dragão with both sides under pressure in the league phase. Porto have lost all three Champions League games and sit 34th on zero points, yet they arrive in good domestic shape after a 4-0 win over Estoril. Zaidu has been passed fit, while William Gomes and Oskar Pietuszewski are doubts. Napoli are 22nd on three points and come in after a 2-0 defeat at Juventus. Their injury list is long: UEFA names captain Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Mathias Olivera, Benoit Badiashile and Stanislav Lobotka among the absentees, with Kevin De Bruyne and Rasmus Hojlund both doubtful. A depleted Napoli defence against a Porto side that needs points suggests goals, and the forecast is dry and clear in Porto. The market makes Porto favourites; with Napoli's absences we rate a home win at 52%. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals, which we rate at 57%.

Our verdict

Napoli's patched-up defence and Porto's need for points point to an open game. We back over 2.5 goals at 57%; Porto are favourites but below our pick threshold.

FAQ

Who is missing for Napoli against Porto?

UEFA lists Di Lorenzo, Olivera, Badiashile, Lobotka, Neres, Alisson Santos and Spinazzola as unavailable, with De Bruyne, Hojlund and Milinkovic-Savic doubtful.

What is the pick for Porto vs Napoli?

Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.81, which we rate at 57%. No bet is ever certain, so stake responsibly.

How have both teams started the Champions League?

Porto have lost all three league-phase games and have zero points; Napoli have one win and two defeats for three points.

What is the best bet for FC Porto vs Napoli?

Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.81, rated 57% confidence. No bet is ever sure.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

We put the chance of three or more goals at 57% for this match.

When does FC Porto vs Napoli kick off?

Wed 04 Nov, 20:00 UTC.