Win probability
39%Bayern München
29%Draw
32%Arsenal
Champions League · Europe
Markets
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Under 2.5 goals41%
Both teams score (GG)58%
Double chance 1X68%
Key factors
- ▼Key player out · Bayern MünchenBAY
Michael Olise is suspended for the Arsenal game after his sending-off in the 3-3 draw at Viking.
- ▼Key player out · Bayern MünchenBAY
Jamal Musiala misses Arsenal with a muscle-fibre tear per Eberl; a long-running absence, counted at half weight.
- ▼Backup goalkeeper · Bayern MünchenBAY
Manuel Neuer is a doubt with fluid in his foot and missed the Leipzig game, with Urbig in goal; doubt counted at half weight.
- ▼Key player out · ArsenalARS
William Saliba is back in light training but not close to a return; long-running absence, counted at reduced weight.
- ●Key attacker out · Bayern MünchenBAY
Bayern lose attacking output with Olise suspended after his red card at Viking.
- ●Key defender out · ArsenalARS
Arsenal centre-back Saliba is still out, not close to a return; long-running absence, counted at half weight.
- ▼Díaz is listed as missing with a lack of training after his muscle problem.BAY
Díaz is listed as missing with a lack of training after his muscle problem.
- ▼Odegaard, Havertz, Tzolis, Calafiori, Timber and Bruno Guimaraes could come back into the side after being rotated in midweek.ARS
Odegaard, Havertz, Tzolis, Calafiori, Timber and Bruno Guimaraes could come back into the side after being rotated in midweek.
Preview
Bayern host Arsenal without two of their most creative players. Michael Olise is suspended after his sending-off in the 3-3 draw at Viking, and Jamal Musiala is still out with a muscle-fibre tear; Max Eberl said he will not be ready for this game. Manuel Neuer is a doubt with fluid in his foot, and Jonas Urbig kept goal in the 6-1 win over RB Leipzig on Saturday. Arsenal have won both league-phase games without conceding and edged Nottingham Forest 1-0 on Sunday through a late Noni Madueke goal. William Saliba is still not close to a return and Piero Hincapié remains out, while Martín Zubimendi was back on the bench. The last five meetings produced three games with three or more goals, and Arsenal won 3-1 when the sides last met in November 2025. Bayern's missing attackers pull the goal line down, but a possible backup keeper and Arsenal playing without Saliba push it back up. We rate over 2.5 goals at 59% and the home win at 39%.
Absences on both sides make the result close to a coin flip, so we stay away from the 1X2. Over 2.5 goals is our pick at 59%.
Head to head
- 2025-11-26Arsenal 3–1 Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
- 2024-04-17Bayern Munich 1–0 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
- 2024-04-09Arsenal 2–2 Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
- 2019-07-18Arsenal 2–1 Bayern MunichInternational Champions Cup
- 2017-07-19Bayern Munich 1–1 ArsenalInternational Champions Cup
FAQ
Is Olise playing for Bayern against Arsenal?
No. He is suspended after being sent off in the 3-3 draw at Viking.
Will Neuer play against Arsenal?
He is a doubt with fluid in his foot; Jonas Urbig kept goal against Viking and Leipzig.
What is the SureTips pick for Bayern vs Arsenal?
Over 2.5 goals at 1.66, which we rate at 59%.
What is the best bet for Bayern München vs Arsenal?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.66, rated 59% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 59% for this match.
When does Bayern München vs Arsenal kick off?
Wed 21 Oct, 19:00 UTC.