Win probability
40%Napoli
30%Draw
30%Lazio
Serie A · Italy
Market view: probabilities from 24 bookmakers' odds, margin removed. Researched picks publish up to 48 hours before kickoff, only when our checks clear one. How we make predictions.
Markets
Over 2.5 goals53%
Under 2.5 goals47%
Both teams score (GG)58%
Double chance 1X70%
Key factors
- ▼Key player out · NapoliNAP
Captain Di Lorenzo is listed as doubtful with an adductor problem, so he counts at half weight.
- ▼Fixture congestion · NapoliNAP
Third match in eight days for Napoli: Juventus on 1 November, Porto away on 4 November, Lazio on Sunday.
- ▼Key player out · LazioLAZ
Lazio captain Zaccagni is ruled out of the trip to Napoli with a left quadriceps tear, confirmed by tests this week.
- ●Key attacker out · LazioLAZ
Zaccagni, with two goals and five assists in 10 Serie A games, is out, removing a main source of Lazio chances.
- ●Key defender out · NapoliNAP
Captain Di Lorenzo is doubtful with an adductor problem, counted at half weight.
- ▲Pinamonti is ready to resume his place up front.LAZ
Pinamonti is ready to resume his place up front.
- ▼Olivera doubtfulNAP
Olivera has a muscle complaint; Sky's preview has him sidelined for Lazio, while its injury list calls him doubtful.
- ▼Zaccagni outLAZ
Zaccagni has a left quadriceps lesion, misses Napoli and risks about a month out; he will be assessed after the break.
Preview
Napoli are in trouble. They lost 2-0 at Juventus, then 4-1 at Porto on Wednesday, and the squad has been sent into a training camp before this game. Allegri has lost seven of his 14 matches and Napoli sit eighth, 14 points behind Lazio. Injuries make it worse. Lobotka, Buongiorno, Neres and Alisson Santos are out, Marianucci is banned, and captain Di Lorenzo and Olivera are doubtful. This is also Napoli's third match in eight days. Lazio arrive top with 28 points, unbeaten, with five wins from five away. They average 2.8 goals a game on the road and concede 0.6. They are short too. Captain Zaccagni is out with a quadriceps tear, Gudmundsson is unavailable and Tavares is a doubt. Lazio have won three of the last five meetings, including both in Naples. We rate it Napoli 40%, draw 30%, Lazio 30%. Over 2.5 goals sits at 53%, and only two of the last five meetings went over. Nothing reaches our 55% bar, so there is no pick here.
A club in crisis meets an unbeaten leader without its captain. We rate it Napoli 40%, draw 30%, Lazio 30%, too close for a pick.
Head to head
- 2026-04-18Napoli 0–2 LazioSerie A
- 2026-01-04Lazio 0–2 NapoliSerie A
- 2025-02-15Lazio 2–2 NapoliSerie A
- 2024-12-08Napoli 0–1 LazioSerie A
- 2024-12-05Lazio 3–1 NapoliCoppa Italia
FAQ
Is Allegri about to be sacked?
Corriere dello Sport says his position is not at risk right now, but calls this game the first real turning point after seven defeats in 14.
Who is missing for Lazio?
Zaccagni is out with a left quadriceps tear and Gudmundsson is unavailable. Tavares is a doubt with calf tightness.
Why no pick?
No priced outcome reaches our 55% minimum. Napoli at the top of the 1X2 are near 40%, and over 2.5 goals is below 55%.
What is the best bet for Napoli vs Lazio?
The market favourite is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.81, rated 54% by the market. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 53% for this match.
When does Napoli vs Lazio kick off?
Sun 08 Nov, 11:30 UTC.