Serie A · ItalySat 10 Oct, 13:00 UTC

Genoa

LDLLL

53%

market chance

Fiorentina

DWLLL

Market favouriteUnder 2.5 goals

Odds1.87

Market view: probabilities from 21 bookmakers' odds, margin removed. Researched picks publish up to 48 hours before kickoff, only when our checks clear one.

Win probability

27%Genoa

30%Draw

43%Fiorentina

Markets

Over 2.5 goals47%

Under 2.5 goals53%

Both teams score (GG)72%

Double chance X273%

Key factors

▼
Starter out · Genoa
Striker Lorenzo Colombo has an ankle sprain and is not expected back until late October, per Sky Italia's round 6 unavailable list.
GEN
▼
L. Colombo out
L. Colombo: Ankle Injury
GEN
▼
F. Meichtry out
F. Meichtry: Muscle Injury
GEN
▼
L. Venturino out
L. Venturino: Knee Injury
GEN
▼
E. Havel doubtful
E. Havel: Ankle Injury
GEN
▼
F. Parisi out
F. Parisi: Knee Injury
FIO
▼
R. Sottil out
R. Sottil: Back Injury
FIO

Preview

Two struggling sides meet in Genoa. The hosts are 19th with 1 point from 5 games and are still looking for a first win. They have scored three goals in those five games. Fiorentina are 17th with 4 points. Genoa have a long absence list. Striker Lorenzo Colombo is out with an ankle sprain, and Djibril Sow misses the game with a muscle problem. Meichtry and Venturino are also out, and one more player is a strong doubt. Fiorentina are without Fabiano Parisi (cruciate ligament injury), and Riccardo Sottil is on their injury list. Recent meetings have been tight. Three of the last five ended level, Fiorentina won the other two, and only two of the five went over 2.5 goals. Genoa's absences push our numbers a little further towards Fiorentina, at about 43%. Under 2.5 goals sits at about 53%. Neither reaches our 55% bar, so there is no pick.

Our verdict

Fiorentina are slight favourites against a Genoa side missing Colombo and Sow, but no market reaches 55%. No pick on this match.

Head to head

2026-05-10Fiorentina 0–0 GenoaSerie A
2025-11-09Genoa 2–2 FiorentinaSerie A
2025-02-02Fiorentina 2–1 GenoaSerie A
2024-10-31Genoa 0–1 FiorentinaSerie A
2024-04-15Fiorentina 1–1 GenoaSerie A

FAQ

What is the best bet for Genoa vs Fiorentina?

The market favourite is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.87, rated 53% by the market.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The chance of three or more goals is 47% for this match.

When does Genoa vs Fiorentina kick off?

Sat 10 Oct, 13:00 UTC.