Aston Villa

Win probability

Markets

Key factors

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  Starter out · Aston Villa

  Left-back Ian Maatsen was hurt by a tackle against Nottingham Forest on 12 September and could not continue (Sky Sports report); Brentford's 7 October match preview still refers to his injury. A long-term absence known for more than 14 days, so half weight.

  AST
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  Starter out · Brentford

  Midfielder Mikkel Damsgaard was ruled out of Denmark's Nations League game against Wales on 3 October and is listed as doubtful (ankle) for this match. A doubt counts at half weight.

  BRE
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  D. Ouattara doubtful

  D. Ouattara: Illness

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  K. Furo out

  K. Furo: Surgery

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  S. van den Berg out

  S. van den Berg: Injury

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  N. Collins doubtful

  N. Collins: Calf Injury

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  M. Damsgaard doubtful

  M. Damsgaard: Ankle Injury

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  J. Dasilva doubtful

  J. Dasilva: Muscle Injury

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Preview

Aston Villa have made a slow start: 16th with 4 points from five games. They have scored 0.5 goals and conceded 1.5 per home game. Brentford are fourth on 9 points and unbeaten in five league games, with two wins and three draws. Away from home they have scored 1.5 and conceded 1.5 per game, so their away matches have averaged three goals. Villa are without left-back Ian Maatsen, who hurt his ankle against Nottingham Forest in September, and Amadou Onana is also out. Matty Cash and Leon Goretzka are listed as doubtful. Brentford's Mikkel Damsgaard missed Denmark's last game and is a doubt, as is Nathan Collins, while Sepp van den Berg is out. The head-to-head is level: two wins each and a draw in the last five meetings, though four of those five finished under 2.5 goals. The result market is close to level, so we look at goals instead. The market rates over 2.5 goals at 56%, and with both defences missing players we take that as our pick.

Head to head

• 2026-02-01Aston Villa 0–1 BrentfordPremier League
• 2025-09-16Brentford 1–1 Aston VillaLeague Cup
• 2025-08-23Brentford 1–0 Aston VillaPremier League
• 2025-03-08Brentford 0–1 Aston VillaPremier League
• 2024-12-04Aston Villa 3–1 BrentfordPremier League