Premier League · EnglandSat 10 Oct, 11:30 UTC

Arsenal

LWWWW

69%

confidence

Leeds

DWDDW

Sure pickArsenal to win

Odds1.44

Win probability

69%Arsenal

20%Draw

10%Leeds

Markets

Over 2.5 goals54%

Under 2.5 goals46%

Both teams score (GG)40%

Double chance 1X89%

Key factors

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Starter out · Arsenal
Forward Kai Havertz picked up a muscle strain on Germany duty and returned to Arsenal for treatment with no timeline given; doubtful, half weight.
ARS
▼
Starter out · Arsenal
Defender Ezri Konsa left the England camp after a knock to the quad against Croatia and is doubtful; half weight.
ARS
▼
Key player out · Leeds
Leeds centre-back Joe Rodon, described by Daniel Farke as a key player, has a hamstring injury assessed at 8-10 weeks; known since early September, so half weight.
LEE
▼
M. Joseph out
M. Joseph: Knee Injury
LEE
▼
H. Wilson doubtful
H. Wilson: Muscle Injury
LEE
▼
J. Bahoya doubtful
J. Bahoya: Ankle Injury
LEE
▼
J. Rodon out
J. Rodon: Muscle Injury
LEE
▼
Christos Tzolis out
Tzolis went off after 18 minutes of Greece's game against the Netherlands with a muscle problem; no return estimate reported.
ARS

Preview

Arsenal are second with 12 points from four wins and one defeat, though that defeat came in their last game before the break. They have also dominated this fixture, winning all of the last five meetings with Leeds, including 5-0 at the Emirates and 4-0 at Elland Road. Leeds are the surprise of the early season: unbeaten in five, fifth in the table, and hard to break down, conceding just 0.5 goals per away game. Both sides come out of the international break with problems. Arsenal's Kai Havertz strained a muscle with Germany and is doubtful, and Ezri Konsa took a knock to the quad on England duty. Leeds are still without centre-back Joe Rodon, a key player for Daniel Farke, who has a hamstring injury, and Jean-Matteo Bahoya hurt his ankle with France's under-21s. Harry Wilson is a doubt with a quad problem. Leeds' tight defence makes us wary of the goals markets, but Arsenal's home record and the head-to-head point one way. We rate an Arsenal win at about 69%.

Our verdict

Leeds are unbeaten, but Arsenal have won the last five meetings and Leeds are still without Rodon. We back Arsenal to win at 1.44.

Head to head

2026-01-31Leeds 0–4 ArsenalPremier League
2025-08-23Arsenal 5–0 LeedsPremier League
2023-04-01Arsenal 4–1 LeedsPremier League
2022-10-16Leeds 0–1 ArsenalPremier League
2022-05-08Arsenal 2–1 LeedsPremier League

FAQ

What is the best bet for Arsenal vs Leeds?

Our top pick is Arsenal to win at odds of 1.44, rated 69% confidence.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The chance of three or more goals is 54% for this match.

When does Arsenal vs Leeds kick off?

Sat 10 Oct, 11:30 UTC.