Win probability
68%Real Madrid
18%Draw
14%Villarreal
La Liga · Spain
Real Madrid
LWWLW
VS
75%
confidence
Villarreal
WWLLL
Sure pickOver 2.5 goals
Odds1.30Markets
Over 2.5 goals75%
Over 3.5 goals55%
Under 2.5 goals25%
Both teams score (GG)63%
Double chance 1X86%
Key factors
- ▼Key player out · Real MadridREA
First-choice centre-back Dean Huijsen is suspended after his red card in the derby at Atletico; known since 20 September, so half weight.
- ▼Key player out · Real MadridREA
Captain Federico Valverde (grade 3 ankle sprain) was still doing individual recovery work on 7 October and is doubtful; known since late September, so quarter weight.
- ▼Starter out · Real MadridREA
Centre-back Ibrahima Konate (knee ligament injury on France duty) is described as in the final stages of recovery and is doubtful; half weight.
- ●Key defender out · Real MadridREA
With Huijsen suspended, Antonio Rudiger is Real Madrid's only fully fit first-team centre-back and Tchouameni may have to fill in; half weight as the ban is long known.
- ▼T. Buchanan outVIL
T. Buchanan: Muscle Injury
- ▼R. Asencio outREA
R. Asencio: Broken Leg
- ▼D. Huijsen suspendedREA
D. Huijsen: Red Card
- ▼F. Mendy outREA
F. Mendy: Hip Injury
Preview
Real Madrid score freely at the Bernabeu, averaging 4 goals per home league game, but their back line is in trouble. Dean Huijsen is suspended after his red card in the derby defeat at Atletico, Ibrahima Konate is still finishing his recovery from a knee injury, and Antonio Rudiger is the only fully fit first-team centre-back. Aurelien Tchouameni may have to drop into defence again. Captain Federico Valverde is also doubtful with an ankle sprain. The good news for Jose Mourinho is up front: Kylian Mbappe trained with the group on Wednesday after his knee problem with France. Villarreal arrive in better form, with back-to-back 3-1 wins over Levante and Malaga, and they average 1.75 goals per away game. They also host Napoli in the Champions League on Tuesday. The last five meetings produced 19 goals, with three going over 2.5. A weakened Madrid defence against a Villarreal side that scores away makes goals the clearest angle. We rate over 2.5 goals at about 75%.
Mbappe is back, but Madrid's defence is down to one fully fit centre-back. We back over 2.5 goals at 1.30.
Head to head
- 2026-01-24Villarreal 0–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 2025-10-04Real Madrid 3–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 2025-03-15Villarreal 1–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 2024-10-05Real Madrid 2–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 2024-05-19Villarreal 4–4 Real MadridLa Liga
FAQ
What is the best bet for Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.30, rated 75% confidence.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The chance of three or more goals is 75% for this match.
When does Real Madrid vs Villarreal kick off?
Sat 10 Oct, 19:00 UTC.