La Liga · SpainSat 10 Oct, 14:15 UTC

Alaves

DLLWW

53%

market chance

Atletico Madrid

WWWLW

Market favouriteAtletico Madrid to win

Odds1.87

Market view: probabilities from 17 bookmakers' odds, margin removed. Researched picks publish up to 48 hours before kickoff, only when our checks clear one.

Win probability

19%Alaves

27%Draw

54%Atletico Madrid

Markets

Over 2.5 goals55%

Under 2.5 goals45%

Both teams score (GG)60%

Double chance X281%

Key factors

▼
Key player out · Alaves
First-choice centre-back Ville Koski, described as a fundamental piece of the defence, picked up a right quadriceps injury with Finland and is out for several weeks.
ALA
▼
Starter out · Atletico Madrid
Left-back Alejandro Grimaldo was released by Spain with discomfort in his left thigh and is doubtful (half weight).
ATM
●
Key defender out · Alaves
Alaves lose first-choice centre-back Ville Koski for several weeks with a quadriceps injury, with Facundo Garces also out.
ALA
▼
F. Garces suspended
F. Garces: Suspended
ALA
▼
V. Koski out
V. Koski: Muscle Injury
ALA
▼
M. Rodriguez out
M. Rodriguez: Ankle Injury
ALA
▼
A. Sorloth doubtful
A. Sorloth: Muscle Injury
ATM

Preview

Alaves have been one of LaLiga's surprise packages: sixth with 11 points and strong at Mendizorroza, where they concede only 0.75 goals per game. That defence has taken a hit. Centre-back Ville Koski, a fundamental piece of the back line, hurt his quadriceps with Finland and is out for several weeks, and Facundo Garces is out with a cruciate ligament tear. Atletico are second with 16 points and have won four of their last five league games. Their concerns are fitness and fatigue: 17 players went on international duty, several of them in South America, and Atletico host Manchester United in the Champions League on Tuesday. Alejandro Grimaldo is a doubt with thigh discomfort, while Alexander Sorloth is back with the group after a calf injury. Recent meetings in Vitoria have been tight, with a 1-1 draw, a 0-0 draw and a 2-0 Alaves win. Four of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals. Koski's absence tilts the game towards Atletico, but not quite far enough for a pick.

Our verdict

Koski's injury helps Atletico, but at about 54% they remain just below our threshold. No pick on this match.

Head to head

2026-01-18Atletico Madrid 1–0 AlavesLa Liga
2025-08-30Alaves 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
2025-05-03Alaves 0–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
2024-11-23Atletico Madrid 2–1 AlavesLa Liga
2024-04-21Alaves 2–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga

FAQ

What is the best bet for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?

The market favourite is Atletico Madrid to win at odds of 1.87, rated 53% by the market.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The chance of three or more goals is 55% for this match.

When does Alaves vs Atletico Madrid kick off?

Sat 10 Oct, 14:15 UTC.